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September 27, 2006


Randy Eischer, Jr.

I'm feeling a lot of heat radiating from this article but not much light. A few dozen nuclear strikes launched across the globe over a week or so would surely kick up quite a bit of dust and smoke, but are you saying that this problem would be negligible, a mere inconvenience?

I don't see much in the way of any data--how much matter would be injected into the stratosphere and for how long if, say, the top twenty cities in the world were attacked? Top fifty? Would a thick layer of ash settle on everything like after Mount St. Helens, or would that, too, be negligible? Would crops have a hard time growing, would it be chilly at all, would we have to start guzzling a lot of salt laced with iodine?

The article simply read like an angry "Is not!" hurled at a perceived "Is too!"

Please study at the graphs and read what I wrote in _Nature_, _Foreign Affairs _and _The National Interest _.

The 'nuclear winter ' model authors arbitrarily and incorrectly assumed hundreds of millions of tons of dust and soot forming an opaque pall lasting many months and producing tens of thousands of degree= days of cooling globally. Three years of parameter studied eliminated the dust as significant factor- it fell or rained out in days to weeks, and cut the smoke ad soot budget bt an order of magnitude. The result was not a global deep freeze but single digit cooling totaling hundreds of degree days- it's the difference between 'winter' in Siberia and Florida.

The before and after scenarios in both generations of models included the major cities you mention.

Read the three volume SCOPE- ENUWAR report for a handle on the details.

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