About Climate Modeling
And JunkScience Is Afraid To Ask:
What the world is doing is not always to to the modeler's liking though. As the owlishly skeptical Roger Pielke Senior notes of Real Climate's own skepticism about what the short term --less than a generation--implies about the still parlous state of the modeling art:
"Ironically, by suggesting that there might be some significance to recent climate trends, [ IPCC head] Dr. Pachauri has provided ammunition to those very same skeptics that he disparages. Perhaps Real Climate will explain how misguided he is, but somehow I doubt it.
For the record, I accept the conclusions of IPCC Working Group I. I don't know how to interpret climate observations of the early 21st century, but believe that there are currently multiple valid hypotheses. I also think that we can best avoid confirmation bias, and other cognitive traps, by making explicit predictions of the future and testing them against experience. The climate community, or at least its activist wing, studiously avoids forecast verification. It just goes to show, confirmation bias is more a more comfortable state than dissonance -- and that goes for people on all sides of the climate debate."